As stocks come off their worst week since 2008, Washington’s failure to produce a stimulus package and the spread of increasingly strict containment measures are putting increasing pressure on global markets. The S&P 500® Index broke through downside support and is now down over 30% from it’s all time high on February 19th. It’s got quite a way to travel until hitting its next “resistance level” though—could it reverse course before it hits? Small and Mid-Caps have already blown past that mid-1800’s level, experiencing a 40%+ drop from their print high on February 20th. A heavy tech-composition in the age of Netflix, Zoom calls, and working from home seems to helping prop up the Nasdaq 100 at least, but is it sustainable? And while tech is showing some resilience and the bond markets look to be catching a much-needed breather, a look at American employment numbers reiterates just how important those small and mid-size businesses are to our economy. Finally, while we’re fully settled into the newest bear market… could its partially event-driven nature differentiate it from other previous bears, potentially indicating a slightly more optimistic outlook going forward?
1. Many chartists would say the next resistance level is in the mid-1800’s for the S&P 500…
Source: The Chart Store, as of 3/20/20
2. Mid Caps and Small Caps have already fallen to these levels. Will the market hold at support?
Source: The Chart Store, as of 3/20/20
3. However the tech-heavy NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are, so far, still in their bull market up channels.
Source: The Chart Store, as of 3/20/20
4. Margin calls and other selling pressure has triggered yields to temporarily spike in certain areas of the bond markets, causing the Fed to intervene. Bond markets, via yield, seem to be calming down again…
Source: The Chart Store, as of 3/20/20
5. This is why it is crucial for the federal stimulus package to include SMID sized companies…
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 3/20/20
6. Please support your favorite local businesses through their time of need!
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 3/23/20
7. When this turns, will it be a v-out?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 3/23/20
8. Some hopeful signs from history:
Source: Eventide Asset Management, from 3/12/20