“What happened to fixed income ETFs in the March sell-off?" So far, we’ve kept quiet on the subject. Not due to a lack of opinions, but because we felt we didn’t have much to add to the discussion. Our many fund sponsor and trading partners (SSGA, iShares, Invesco, and Jane Street to name a few) have done a fantastic job of providing detailed analyses on the subject.
The markets may have kicked off this week with a severe case of the Mondays (okay, and the Tuesdays...), but is the situation as bad as it's being made out to be? The ACWI's certainly seen worse days in the past ten years, and we've spoken more than once now about how valuations were getting overheated. Could a pullback be just what the doctor ordered?
The third quarter of 2019 was full of noise and lacking substance. There was a terrorist attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, which affected the price of oil for about two weeks, and now oil is right back where it started. The U.S. dollar continued to grind higher and has now appreciated ~12.6% since its 2/16/2018 low. Manufacturing and trade continued to wane as the trade war drags on.
Latest on Manufacturing
- Manufacturing PMI Still Contracting, Corn Shipments Halved, and Non-OPEC Oil Supply Outpaces Demand
- BCM 3Q19 Market Commentary: Blinking Yellow Lights
- Jobs Reports, Service Sector Slowdown, and Are We in a Large-Cap Super-Cycle?
- Financial Sector Breakout, Record Setting Trade Deficits, Underwhelming Regional Fed Reports
American unemployment remains at historic highs as debate wages on about the contents of the next stimulus bill, and the $600 benefit boost remains a sticking point. Is the additional payment a disincentive to return to work or a major factor in our relative success at staving off economic collapse—or is it both?
Though not perfect and certainly not without several threats still looming in the background, the U.S. has seen a surprisingly strong economic recovery in the months since the onset of the Covid-19 crisis. Retail sales have fully rebounded, the housing market is booming, and household income is actually higher now than it was back in March.
The declines in first-time unemployment claims have stalled, and in fact jumped by over 100,000 last week to top 1.5 million on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. With the extended PPP deadline looming at August 8th and the additional $600 boost to unemployment benefits set to expire this month, a growing contingent of Americans—and the American economy as a whole—could soon be in for a shock.