The markets may have kicked off this week with a severe case of the Mondays (okay, and the Tuesdays...), but is the situation as bad as it's being made out to be? The ACWI's certainly seen worse days in the past ten years, and we've spoken more than once now about how valuations were getting overheated. Could a pullback be just what the doctor ordered?
The third quarter of 2019 was full of noise and lacking substance. There was a terrorist attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, which affected the price of oil for about two weeks, and now oil is right back where it started. The U.S. dollar continued to grind higher and has now appreciated ~12.6% since its 2/16/2018 low. Manufacturing and trade continued to wane as the trade war drags on.
Most investment professionals would agree that stock market price movement in the 0-5% range is just ordinary market movement or statistical “noise.”
Latest on Manufacturing
- Manufacturing PMI Still Contracting, Corn Shipments Halved, and Non-OPEC Oil Supply Outpaces Demand
- BCM 3Q19 Market Commentary: Blinking Yellow Lights
- Jobs Reports, Service Sector Slowdown, and Are We in a Large-Cap Super-Cycle?
- Financial Sector Breakout, Record Setting Trade Deficits, Underwhelming Regional Fed Reports
In a surprise (and rare—this marks the first since the financial crisis) inter-meeting move, the Federal Reserve issued an emergency 50-basis point rate cut yesterday to help stabilize the markets. It provided a short-lived boost, but the markets plunged again by the end of the day to erase much of Monday's rally...
After a straight week of market losses, there were some signs of stabilization this morning—the question is whether it will last or amount to a head-fake. The S&P 500® Index at least has crossed into oversold territory, and central banks look to be taking notice...
It's no secret: this has been the worst week for U.S. stocks since the financial crisis. U.S. indices have entered correction territory—the fastest correction on record for the S&P 500—and the U.S. market outperformance comparable to the rest of the world is rapidly narrowing. But, like greed caused the market to be overbought at its highs, is fear now leading to overselling?