Earnings Estimates Drop, Good News for the Housing Market, and Has U.S. Unemployment Bottomed?

Today’s another jam-packed day for earnings in a season that’s been largely mixed so far; headline names include Microsoft, Ford, Boeing, and Catepillar, among many others. We’re keeping our fingers crossed for good news, as the analyst outlook for 2020 seems to be increasingly weak; last week saw the steepest downward revision in nearly a year. The housing market is enjoying a boost from the recent rate cuts and record low unemployment, but while analysts are confident another cut is on the way, we’re seeing early signs that unemployment may soon be on the rise. And while we saw some good (and surprising) news on manufacturing coming out of Richmond, the industry remains in a recession with China-sensitive regions bearing the brunt of the slowdown in the U.S. The conflict is weighing on China too, where plummeting exports to the U.S. have dragged their total export growth to nearly zilch. 

1. Are the analysts following the “typical” reporting trend or being overly cautious?

Source: Bloomberg, as of 10/21/19

2. The issue with a hedge fund is that it is an investment “wrapper” like a mutual fund… almost anything can be inside it…

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/22/19

3. Low mortgage rates continue to help revive the housing markets.

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/23/19

4. This is for five predominantly rural/small states. If it spreads, a recession may be imminent…

Source: The Wall Street Journal, as of 10/21/19

5. A positive surprise out of the Richmond Fed…

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/22/19

6. Last month’s gains have been reversed and then some, re-establishing the downward trend in Canadian manufacturing.

Source: Gavekal, as of 10/22/19

7. A nice synopsis…

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics, as of 10/22/19

8. This will be a closely watched indicator that the “trade truce” is holding… The Chinese have used currency as a “weapon” in the trade war…

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/22/19

9. China’s total export growth is approaching zero…

Source: Gavekal, as of 10/23/19

10. And why it matters…

Source: Natixis, as of 10/22/19

11. Does the positive trend since 2014 imply that a fiscal stimulus package could be on the way?

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/21/19

12. “…Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free. The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me…” Emma Lazarus, the Statue of Liberty.

Source: Statista, as of 9/27/19