Another Record For the S&P 500 and Some Overdue Good News on Manufacturing
January 17, 2020 | FIRESIDE CHARTS
The S&P 500 sailed through the 3,300 mark for the first time yesterday to clinch yet another record, thanks in large part to solid December retail numbers, a strong start to earnings season, and tech stocks (congratulations Alphabet!). But similarly outsized performance back in 2018 was followed quickly by a significant correction—should we brace for history to repeat itself? The technical indicators seem to think so, but some economic reports are doing their best to sustain sentiment; more than one East Coast manufacturing print look to have (finally) established some upward momentum after a long period of contraction. The Producer Price Index (PPI) hasn’t quite gotten the memo yet, but will hopefully benefit from the news on its next print. And while Wednesday saw the long-awaited signing of the phase one trade deal between the U.S. and China, the trade war isn’t the only economic sword hanging over China’s head at the moment…
1. Are we in the parabolic “blow-off” stage of the market?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 1/17/20
2. The NY Fed has shown positive manufacturing growth for several months now. Let’s see if the country’s manufacturing belt can follow suit!
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 1/16/20
3. Together with the NY Fed survey, it looks like the East Coast is rebounding!
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 1/17/20
4. Unlike the CPI which is establishing an up trend, the Producer Price Index is likely suffering from the manufacturing recession…
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 1/16/20
5. A ray of hope for Germany and the European economy?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 1/17/20
6. While China’s economic activity came in as expected, there may be some issues under the hood…
Source: Bloomberg, from 1/16/20
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