The U.S. lost about 700,000 jobs in March—7x the expected figure and a grim way to cap off the first quarter. Still, given the staggering number of unemployment claims continuing to roll in, this may be just the beginning; the unemployment rate is expected to hit a multi-decade high over the next few months. Thankfully, many have been able to make the switch to working from home in an effort to slow the spread of COVID-19—the percentage of Americans working remotely has doubled to 62% in just the past few weeks. Meanwhile, debt downgrades have taken hold as ratings firms take a critical eye at corporations’ financial health, and the number of fallen angels has spiked. Cash flow may be part of the issue, and many firms are slashing dividends to compensate. Can you guess which industry leads the pack? Finally, while restrictions have begun to lift in China, a second wave of infections looks to be unfolding in Singapore and Hong Kong… is the U.S. in for the same if we relax social distancing measures too quickly?
1. With projections reaching into the tens of millions, this is just the tip of the iceberg…
![u.s. nonfar payrolls](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/4.6%20-%20nonfarm%20payrolls%2010s%20m%20projections.png)
Source: WSJ Daily Shot 4/6/20
2. In addition to those who remain on the front lines, to all those staying home: Thank you!
![working remotely](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/4.6%20-%20more%20working%20remotely.png)
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 4/6/20
3. The amount of U.S. debt downgrades is stunning…
![debt downgrades and fallen angels](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/4.6%20-%20stunning%20debt%20downgrades.png)
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 4/6/20
4. European firms are slashing dividends to preserve cash…
![cutting dividends](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/4.6%20-%20european%20firms%20slahing%20dividends.png)
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 4/6/20
5. A possible glimpse into our future if we relax our diligence and social distancing too early:
![second waves coronavirus](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/4.6%20-%20china%20new%20infections%20social%20distancing.png)
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, 4/6/20
6. We wonder how this might change over time…
![quarantining activities](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/4.6%20-%20lockdown%20activities%20-%20change%20over%20time.png)
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 4/6/20