The number of U.S. job openings fell short of expectations to hit a two-year low in December, reigniting fears of a softening economy. This marks the second significant decline in a row and a 14% (1 million+) year-over-year drop. The S&P 500 may be continuing to reach new highs, but we’re fairly sure the state of the job market has the Fed’s (and Claudia Sahm’s) ears perked up. Mega-caps continue to be the driving force behind strong U.S. market performance with the S&P 500’s two largest companies, Apple and Microsoft, now comprising nearly 10% of the index. But you know what they say about putting all of your eggs in one basket… And while mega-cap market share is growing, the velocity of money in U.S. just hit a six+ decade low in a sign of slowing spending and—potentially—a contracting economy. Meanwhile, the coronavirus, now named COVID-19 by the WHO, continues to threaten economic growth. However, the Chinese market is rebounding on hopes of additional stimulus and some select commodities are on the rise; what will it take to sustain the trend?
1. Was December’s job openings count a bad print or the acceleration of the 10 month trend?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/12/20
2. This is the year-over year data. Don’t forget the Sahm rule!
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/12/20
3. The big get bigger… What could possibly go wrong?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/11/20
4. It is difficult at best to get robust inflation if the velocity of money is low…
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/11/20 & Investopedia
5. Europe cannot catch a break…
Source: JP Morgan, from 2/11/20
6. Will the Chinese stock market recovery continue?
Source: JP Morgan, from 2/11/20
7. China’s growth has come with some growing pains; do they have their own financial crisis brewing?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/12/20
8. The trade wars and the coronavirus have decimated commodities. Are EM equities also a bargain?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/11/20
9. As the coronavirus fears are contained, many commodities, including Steel rebar in China, are rebounding….
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/11/20