Are You Prepared?
February 19, 2020 | COMMENTARY
Happy Valentine’s Day, Fireside Charts readers! If your wallet’s feeling a little light this week, you aren’t alone; U.S. farm bankruptcies keep climbing and hit an eight-year high in 2019. The U.S. farmer has been struggling for a long time now and saw a ray of hope with the recent signing of the Phase One trade deal with China—and its provisions for boosted agricultural trade… But January’s deal is only a first step, and the world’s second largest economy is a little preoccupied at the moment… Though transmission of the coronavirus appears to have peaked, a huge one-day spike in cases and deliberate under-reporting has cast doubt over the scale of the epidemic. Over 30% of China’s population remains under lockdown and the expected 1% decline in economic growth will have global implications. The effects could be particularly worrisome for Germany and Mexico, where growth was struggling long before the onset of the epidemic. Let’s hope these recent reports of a vaccine have merit…
Source: Statista, from 2/12/20
2. With all due respect, sometimes data from China is highly suspect.
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/12/20
3. It is worth noting that China’s share of the global economy is ~10x what it was during the SARS outbreak. The effects will be felt; the questions are how deep and for how long?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/13/20
4. Mexico’s economy is struggling even worse than Germany’s…
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/13/20
5. Looking for a weekend activity?
Source: Statista, from 2/11/20
While the markets have remained largely resilient to this point, epidemics, slowing growth, and shaky investor sentiment often have an effect eventually. For a review of the different kinds of market declines and their implications, check out “Tactical to Practical: Understanding the Importance of Types of Market Declines” by BCM Portfolio Manager and Managing Partner Dave Haviland.
Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are they a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be helf in client accounts.