Manufacturing PMI Still Contracting, Corn Shipments Halved, and Non-OPEC Oil Supply

Did you spend big this holiday weekend? While consumer sentiment and spending are still strong—Adobe Analytics estimates that sales topped $29 billion between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday—strong consumer demand does not look to be trickling through to the manufacturing sector. Domestic and international markets continue in contraction and—despite a small recovery in Germany—a manufacturing recession has taken hold in all European nations except France and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI clocked in at a lackluster 46.9. Could that be the driving force behind the ECB’s surge in asset purchases (re: QE) after a a very hands-off approach in early 2019? Meanwhile, non-OPEC oil production (including surging U.S. volume) is significantly outpacing demand, making us wonder what’s in store for energy prices, and woes continue for the U.S. farmer as corn exports tumble. Finally, when’s the best time to buy a Christmas tree? Read on to find out!

1. Will yesterday’s comments from the President that “perhaps a trade deal should wait until after the elections,” coupled with the state of global manufacturing, beacon a recession? Here is the latest from the U.S.:

2. The Fed Regional surveys continue to back up the National survey. Chicago was weak as well.

3. Once again, the U.S. farmer is stuck holding the bag…

4. OPEC production cuts are being more than offset by the U.S. and others…

6. OK, this is no longer in free-fall, but what will the threatened trade war with Europe do?

7. Only France is bucking the European manufacturing recession…

8. Here is Europe combined…

9. It looks like Mexico will not join Canada with manufacturing growth…

10. GDP looks to be stabilizing in Canada, so a quick trivia question: What is the national sport of Canada? See below for the answer!

11. What prominent country is missing from this list?

12. Does procrastinating have its benefits?

Answer: Canada’s national sport is box lacrosse!

We’re all taken by surprise sometimes (we would have sworn the answer was hockey), but that doesn’t mean you have to be taken off-guard. Check out our piece “Are You Prepared” for a look at the current bull market and some thoughts on what could be in store when it turns.