Market Insights

Rising energy prices pushed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to its largest monthly change in over a year but, below the surface, the increase in core CPI remained subdued. The price of oil is now at…

Job growth continued in August, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up as the labor force increased. Employment remains strong, but the gains are slowing and new entrants to the labor force…

For the past few quarters, our positive firm view on the homebuilding sector has been in large part due to the idea of “interest rate lock-in” for existing homebuyers. Put simply, homeowner’s existing mortgages…

Inflation continues its downward trajectory, and economic growth may be accelerating. Accelerating growth may keep interest rates higher despite lower inflation. While this may create a confusing…

Sentiment on the strength of the U.S. economy has improved dramatically over the past couple of months, but there may be headwinds on the horizon for U.S. consumers. Lenders are tightening credit…

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates, bringing the upper bound of their target rate range to 5.50%. This is widely expected to be the final rate hike, but in his press conference Chair Powell…

The prospect of an AI-fueled investment cycle as well as strong May jobs numbers propelled the market higher in Q2. Although we believe that many companies have already re-calibrated for a changing economic…

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose less than expected in June, bolstering optimism that inflation is behind us. Despite the positive inflation data, the market believes the Federal Reserve is locked…

Happy 4th of July! Equity investors are bullish going into the holiday weekend, as recent economic data has been unambiguously positive. On the other hand, the current period of low equity market…

Signs of labor market weakness, which have historically signaled a recession, are beginning to appear. The construction sector, which was hit hard in recent recessions, seems set up for strong demand…

On June 3rd, President Biden signed the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 into law suspending the debt ceiling until 2025 and averting a potential U.S. default. One provision of the law will require student loan…

AI mania is sweeping the stock market, propelling broad indices to near-term highs as breadth continues to narrow. While the banking crisis is over for now, the problems that sparked it haven’t gone…

The Federal Reserve Board recently published the results of their “Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking” from October 2022. Periodically released by the Federal Reserve Board, this report…

The price of oil is near its 52-week low, but this hasn’t translated to lower prices at the pump for consumers. Oil isn’t the only commodity showing weakness as investors being to sour on the asset…

In 2011, the United States was rapidly approaching its debt ceiling—the legislative cap on the total amount of debt that the U.S. government can incur to finance its operations. The debt ceiling at that time was…

The economy isn’t growing as fast as it once was but it’s too early to call this a slowdown. Hard economic data is still very positive, and inflation continues to trend in the right direction…

Inconsistent economic data is making it difficult to judge the state of the economy. Many previously negative indicators are turning around, while others are showing new signs of weakness. Interest rates have…

We remain in a somewhat uncharted investment environment with new crises occurring almost quarterly. These have been catalyzed in some part by the Federal Reserve’s obsession with inflation and their urgent…

Equity markets are rallying into earnings season, despite unusually high uncertainty surrounding earnings estimates. Recent banking issues have put a spotlight on commercial real estate. Inflation data…

In the wake of the March 10th demise of Silicon Valley Bank, banks have been thrust into the center of the latest economic crises. More specifically, banks with a large number of uninsured deposits (those over…

The Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy always break something but once something breaks it usually marks the end of the tightening cycle. Issues within the banking sector are likely to lead to…

Silicon Valley Bank’s announcement that it was raising capital on Wednesday caused a crisis of confidence leading to a traditional bank run. Consumers and companies are adding debt. New orders are…

Economic data is showing no signs of weakness so far in 2023. If the economy remains strong, or even accelerates, then the Federal Reserve may have a harder time bringing inflation back to target…

Consumers are becoming more upbeat, at odds with disappointing retail sales in December. More companies are mentioning job cuts on earnings calls. Slack in the labor market will put downward pressure…

What a difference a year makes. In hindsight the markets entered 2022 on an unstable precipice. Conversely, 2023 is beginning to look like a valley, with much of the prior excesses already stamped out in a…

Consumers are becoming more upbeat, at odds with disappointing retail sales in December. More companies are mentioning job cuts on earnings calls. Slack in the labor market will put downward pressure…

Whether it be the explosion of cryptocurrencies, a renewed fervor for Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) , Electric Vehicle companies (many of which sought SPAC IPOs), or the dawn of the…

Real disposable incomes are on the rise again to start the new year as inflation continues to moderate. Unseasonably warm weather across the United States has caused front month natural gas prices…

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised markets by releasing economic and rate hike forecasts that are out of line with current consensus. The committee seems convinced that unemployment…