Market Insights

AI mania is sweeping the stock market, propelling broad indices to near-term highs as breadth continues to narrow. While the banking crisis is over for now, the problems that sparked it haven’t gone…

The Federal Reserve Board recently published the results of their “Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking” from October 2022. Periodically released by the Federal Reserve Board, this report…

The price of oil is near its 52-week low, but this hasn’t translated to lower prices at the pump for consumers. Oil isn’t the only commodity showing weakness as investors being to sour on the asset…

We remain in a somewhat uncharted investment environment with new crises occurring almost quarterly. These have been catalyzed in some part by the Federal Reserve’s obsession with inflation and their urgent…

In 2011, the United States was rapidly approaching its debt ceiling—the legislative cap on the total amount of debt that the U.S. government can incur to finance its operations. The debt ceiling at that time was…

The economy isn’t growing as fast as it once was but it’s too early to call this a slowdown. Hard economic data is still very positive, and inflation continues to trend in the right direction…

Inconsistent economic data is making it difficult to judge the state of the economy. Many previously negative indicators are turning around, while others are showing new signs of weakness. Interest rates have…

Equity markets are rallying into earnings season, despite unusually high uncertainty surrounding earnings estimates. Recent banking issues have put a spotlight on commercial real estate. Inflation data…

In the wake of the March 10th demise of Silicon Valley Bank, banks have been thrust into the center of the latest economic crises. More specifically, banks with a large number of uninsured deposits (those over…

The Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy always break something but once something breaks it usually marks the end of the tightening cycle. Issues within the banking sector are likely to lead to…

Silicon Valley Bank’s announcement that it was raising capital on Wednesday caused a crisis of confidence leading to a traditional bank run. Consumers and companies are adding debt. New orders are…

Economic data is showing no signs of weakness so far in 2023. If the economy remains strong, or even accelerates, then the Federal Reserve may have a harder time bringing inflation back to target…

Consumers are becoming more upbeat, at odds with disappointing retail sales in December. More companies are mentioning job cuts on earnings calls. Slack in the labor market will put downward pressure…

What a difference a year makes. In hindsight the markets entered 2022 on an unstable precipice. Conversely, 2023 is beginning to look like a valley, with much of the prior excesses already stamped out in a…

Consumers are becoming more upbeat, at odds with disappointing retail sales in December. More companies are mentioning job cuts on earnings calls. Slack in the labor market will put downward pressure…

Whether it be the explosion of cryptocurrencies, a renewed fervor for Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) , Electric Vehicle companies (many of which sought SPAC IPOs), or the dawn of the…

Real disposable incomes are on the rise again to start the new year as inflation continues to moderate. Unseasonably warm weather across the United States has caused front month natural gas prices…

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised markets by releasing economic and rate hike forecasts that are out of line with current consensus. The committee seems convinced that unemployment…

The Federal reserve wants to loosen the labor market, but the labor market isn’t tight because interest rates are too low. Despite higher interest rates and a cooling economy there’s been little stress…

Covid restrictions remain widespread in China, now impacting nearly 60% of economic output. Increasing covid restrictions have coincided with falling oil prices. Earnings estimates for large U.S. stocks…

The economy is still growing, but it seems clear that it’s no longer overheating. Consumers are continuing to spend into the holiday season. Views on the labor market are souring. Retail pricing power…

The economy can handle higher rates, but not a Federal Reserve asleep at the wheel. Powell denied any imminent pivot and spooked the markets with hawkish rhetoric surrounding further rate hikes…

U.S. GDP is growing again, but the story is a little more complicated below the surface. Preliminary data is showing a decline in U.S. rents during October. The Federal Reserve has now overseen the…

Consumer savings, which increased substantially during the pandemic, has remained near record levels. Social security payments are set to rise 8.7% providing much-needed relief to seniors. Key drivers…

What started as a summer of optimism in markets ended with a fall of fear. Tough talk from the Federal Reserve and August’s inflation print brought equity and fixed income markets broadly towards new lows…

The Federal Reserve is getting its wish, manufacturing growth has decelerated markedly and is now barely positive. On the positive side, the slowdown has allowed supply chains to catch up which bodes…

The Federal Reserve is threatening to push the economy into a recession to stamp out inflation if necessary, and the market is taking them seriously. Market prices on commodities and other industrial…

Jerome Powell’s tone during Wednesday’s press conference has market participants considered the Fed is determined to break the economy in order to get inflation under control. However, many forward leading inflation indicators…

Whether it be the explosion of cryptocurrencies, a renewed fervor for Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) , Electric Vehicle companies (many of which sought SPAC IPOs), or the dawn of the…