Market Insights

The Federal Reserve is threatening to push the economy into a recession to stamp out inflation if necessary, and the market is taking them seriously. Market prices on commodities and other industrial…

Jerome Powell’s tone during Wednesday’s press conference has market participants considered the Fed is determined to break the economy in order to get inflation under control. However, many forward leading inflation indicators…

Whether it be the explosion of cryptocurrencies, a renewed fervor for Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) , Electric Vehicle companies (many of which sought SPAC IPOs), or the dawn of the…

The first half of 2022 has been one of the most difficult investment environments in the past 40 years due to the simultaneous decline of bonds with stocks, and an unprecedented mix of external shocks…

Last Tuesday’s CPI reading of +.1% month over month sent shockwaves through the market as forecasters hoped for a -.1% decrease month over month buoyed by big declines in oil prices.

Most data is pointing towards improving supply constraints in both physical goods and the labor market, likely implying declining inflation in the near-term. Russia has shut down the NordStream pipeline further exacerbating Europe’s energy…

At Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve officials dissuaded the market of any notion that a pivot is around the corner. These communications, coupled with more positive economic data, sent interest rates up…

After recent economic data exceeded expectations, futures markets are no longer pricing in cuts to the Federal Funds rate in the first half of 2023. The markets are giving the Federal Reserve room act…

With the release of last Friday’s jobs report the U.S. economy has now recovered all of the jobs lost during the pandemic, a momentous achievement. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue tightening…

The slowdown in economic data continues. Aggregate unemployment has remained largely unscathed, but employees are beginning to worry about labor markets. S&P 500 forward earnings estimates are falling despite…

A likely recession is now consensus among fund managers. Few managers are taking on risk in this environment, and many are hedged for further downside. Housing inventory is on the rise, but prices have yet to…

The U.S. Dollar is surging to new 20-year highs. Market measures of long-term inflation expectations continue to fall, driven in part by falling energy and agriculture prices. Gas prices are driven by the…

This has been one of the most difficult investment environments with simultaneous declines in bond and stocks, and a number of external shocks. However, the odds are in the favor of investors. Click below to…

As the second quarter comes to an end, it’s been an incredible difficult year especially for investors with traditionally conservative allocations. Low unemployment has historically corresponded to strong…

2022 has been a difficult and frustrating year for many asset managers, ourselves included. The S&P 500 recently entered a bear market, falling 20% from its most recent peak. While this is far from uncharted…

Leading economic indicators are starting to turn negative, as the market prices in a lower peak to the current Federal Reserve hiking cycle. Long-term market-based inflation expectations have fallen recently…

The Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds rate by 0.75% on Wednesday, further accelerating an already aggressive tightening cycle. Financial conditions have already tightened significantly and the FOMC…

The Federal funds rate is currently targeted between 0.75 to 1.00%, with an additional 50 to 75 basis points on the table this week. The two-year treasury yield has been 40 basis points above the Federal…

China’s economy is beginning to re-open. While this is a positive development for the global economy, it may lead to increased oil demand at a time when supply is already tight. Historically, periods of high…

Nasdaq 100 breadth has fallen to levels only seen near the bottom of recent drawdowns. Inflation remains front and center, but market-based measures have fallen over the past month. Falling inflation…

Is the current market environment abnormal, or simply returning to normal? Valuations for a large portion of the U.S. equity markets are now at or below their pre-Covid levels. Retail traders have given back…

It has been feeling all year as if the market is on a teeter totter. One day euphoria, the next day fear. I analyzed daily S&P 500® Index returns to see if there had been more pairs of big up and down index…

Is the current market environment abnormal, or simply returning to normal? Valuations for a large portion of the U.S. equity markets are now at or below their pre-Covid levels. Retail traders have given back…

With inflation soaring to 8.5% in the most recent CPI report, some attention has been garnered to a relatively obscure government-backed investment known as iBonds or Series I Savings Bonds. These bonds…

The widely awaited FOMC (Federal Open Markets Committee) meeting has come and gone. The FOMC raised the Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points (0.50%) and announced plans to reducing the Federal Reserve’s…

GameStop is the largest video game retailer worldwide. At its 4,816 stores, customers can purchase new or used video games, gaming consoles and accessories or trade in their old items for cash or credit…

Small option traders, the favored vehicle of many “meme” investors, are becoming less bullish as investor sentiment continues to worsen. Consumer sentiment continues to fall as well, despite confidence in…

Investor sentiment is reaching dire levels. The U.S. 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield is in positive territory for the first time since 2019, as higher interest rates bolster the…

As we reflect on another quarter, it’s astounding how rapidly the prevailing narrative changes. Last quarter we were cautiously optimistic that Omicron would push the world towards a “living with Covid” reality…