Market Insights

Consumer spending, the pandemic and inflation. What will consumers do? The US dollar rally may help curb imported inflation of goods, but our own housing and rent inflation will overwhelm this beneficial …

Perhaps we’ve rediscovered why there is a worker shortage. Inflation, stagflation, and more inflation. This does not look “transitory” and the rates of inflation may shock you. What can cash inflows…

The various gauges of inflation are confirming what we already see at the pump, at stores and online—prices are going up and there is little sign they will abate anytime soon. Producer inflation is…

Nearly a year has passed since Pfizer and BioNTech announced successful Phase 3 trial results for their groundbreaking mRNA-based Covid-19 vaccine. The effort to develop, produce, and distribute these…

November will be a big month for Federal Reserve developments, with more actionable talk of rate hikes and plans to start tapering asset purchases before the end of the month. With a balance sheet…

Early in the pandemic, we talked a lot about how the services recovery was a little slow out of the gate when compared to manufacturing. Momentum is accelerating though, and October saw the ISM…

Good help is growing hard to find—and afford—in the U.S. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) posted its largest gain on record last quarter, driven primarily by wage increases on the lower end of the pay…

After a dip into contraction in September, manufacturing in Richmond has realigned with the national average to settle in “slow-growth” mode. Prices also followed a similar pattern to the national…

The Markit Manufacturing PMI came in slightly below expectations in October at 59.2, easing a bit from September’s high but still demonstrating robust growth. Price pressures, both input and output…

It’s no secret that a staggering amount of wealth was created during the pandemic and the M2 money supply has hit record highs (in what may be a precursor to some painful times ahead…). However…

U.S. industrial production declined in September and has slipped below its pre-pandemic level, pushing the nation back into slow-growth mode and—when paired with sinking GDP projections—reigniting…

This may come as a shock, but inflation is brewing across the globe. As small businesses plan to raise prices to cope with a tight labor market, beleaguered supply chains, and climbing production…

The U.S. added only 194,000 jobs in September per Friday’s DOL report, far below the expected 500,000. Labor force participation also declined, keeping payrolls well below the pre-covid trend…

Despite a strong recovery in manufacturing activity, the U.S. trade deficit climbed to a record high of $73.3 billion in August. Sentiment is already split on what to expect from Q3 GDP, and a…

Unemployment remains a persistent problem in the U.S. as new claims remain elevated and continuing claims prove more stubborn than expected in the face of waning pandemic-era programs. Already facing…

The age of the pandemic discount appears to be over as rent inflation gains a double-digit foothold in the U.S. So far, the housing boom as flown largely under the CPI radar—will soaring equivalent…

Manufacturing activity is slowing across the U.S.—including slipping into contraction in the Mid-Atlantic—and paired with climbing prices, it’s sending ominous “stagflationary” signals of what…

Retail investors are at it again and have helped push daily stock options volume to unprecedented heights. With the broad U.S. corporate debt-to-equity ratio falling to historic lows as valuations…

U.S. household net worth hit an all-time high of $141.7 trillion in Q2 after a 19.6% year-over-year gain, per the Fed’s report Wednesday. Household assets are also at a record high, which may come…

The housing market at large cooled slightly in August, but rental inflation is soaring in a development that’s sure to have been a topic of conversation at this month’s FOMC meeting. Other likely…

Amid expiring unemployment benefits, higher than expected retail activity, and lower than expected inflation, the main topic of conversation during our latest Investment Committee meeting was the economy…

It’s a grim start to a big week as stocks slide and risk-off sentiment takes hold. Though inflow and outflow patterns might suggest otherwise, small caps were the only hold out last week as all…

Supply chain issues are pushing up producer prices and driving inflationary pressures; though CPI came in below expectations, the median month-over-month gain hit a multi-year high. But how useful…

From Siri and Alexa’s ever-increasing sophistication to the frightening accuracy of Facebook’s “people you may know” feature and Google Search’s predictive text, some of the world’s largest companies…

Last week’s jobs report disappointed as we moved into Labor Day Weekend, adding yet more data that indicates global growth may be losing steam. Though conditions have tightened, small businesses…

Manufacturing activity is slowing across the U.S. as the nation grapples with the Delta variant and significant supply-chain bottlenecks; the latest survey out of the Dallas Fed dramatically…

U.S. consumer spending came in slightly below expectations in July but remains above the pre-pandemic trendline and has continued to grow month-over-month. Meanwhile, the personal savings rate…

As the eviction moratorium comes to an end in the U.S. following a 6-3 vote in the Supreme Court, we’re seeing fewer renters making the transition to homeowners—though competition and price increases…

We’re seeing yet more evidence that manufacturing activity is moderating from its pandemic-era extremes, this time out of the Richmond Fed which saw activity fall significantly short of expectations…