Market Insights

Nasdaq 100 breadth has fallen to levels only seen near the bottom of recent drawdowns. Inflation remains front and center, but market-based measures have fallen over the past month. Falling inflation…

Is the current market environment abnormal, or simply returning to normal? Valuations for a large portion of the U.S. equity markets are now at or below their pre-Covid levels. Retail traders have given back…

It has been feeling all year as if the market is on a teeter totter. One day euphoria, the next day fear. I analyzed daily S&P 500® Index returns to see if there had been more pairs of big up and down index…

As we reflect on another quarter, it’s astounding how rapidly the prevailing narrative changes. Last quarter we were cautiously optimistic that Omicron would push the world towards a “living with Covid” reality…

Is the current market environment abnormal, or simply returning to normal? Valuations for a large portion of the U.S. equity markets are now at or below their pre-Covid levels. Retail traders have given back…

With inflation soaring to 8.5% in the most recent CPI report, some attention has been garnered to a relatively obscure government-backed investment known as iBonds or Series I Savings Bonds. These bonds…

The widely awaited FOMC (Federal Open Markets Committee) meeting has come and gone. The FOMC raised the Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points (0.50%) and announced plans to reducing the Federal Reserve’s…

GameStop is the largest video game retailer worldwide. At its 4,816 stores, customers can purchase new or used video games, gaming consoles and accessories or trade in their old items for cash or credit…

Small option traders, the favored vehicle of many “meme” investors, are becoming less bullish as investor sentiment continues to worsen. Consumer sentiment continues to fall as well, despite confidence in…

Investor sentiment is reaching dire levels. The U.S. 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield is in positive territory for the first time since 2019, as higher interest rates bolster the…

The long end of the yield curve just inverted for the first time since 2006. The flattening yield curve reflects the market’s expectations of future Federal Reserve tightening and its impact on the economy…

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members are telegraphing an increasingly hawkish approach to monetary policy in the near future, and the bond markets have reacted accordingly. Mortgage rates have risen…

Meme stocks are back. The labor market remains strong, but fewer firms are planning to hire in the future. Where are we in the business cycle? The data points to a late cycle slowdown, which has historically…

Behavioral finance plays a big role in the way that we think about investing. The idea that investors have consistent biases, many of which lead to suboptimal investment outcomes, is commonly accepted by…

As the Federal Reserve plans to raise short-term interest rates, the market is already a few steps ahead. Inflation expectations are moving higher and interest rates across the yield curve have already…

The Chinese government is attempting to calm markets after steep price declines. Employees may be returning to the office, but companies aren’t leasing new office space just yet. Performance of small- and…

Rising house prices and falling or low interest rates act as a form of “stimulus” to homeowners as they refinance their mortgages. So far, higher debt levels haven’t caused any financial stress for households…

Following the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, Brent Crude Oil futures climbed over $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. On March 4th, the benchmark price rose by $7.96 to $112.93—the…

January 2022 has certainly started with a bang. While volatility is normal in markets, we want to explore some of the “whys”. Global PMIs retreat as Omicron does its thing. How many Americans are out…

We’d like to start by wishing our readers a happy and healthy New Year. When we wrote our last quarterly letter the U.S. was in the midst of a wave in Covid-19 cases driven by the Delta variant. At the time…

What effect will a 1% rise in rates have on your portfolio? A look at rate increases and their effects on equity markets. We hope you refinanced your mortgage as mortgage rates follow suit. Is the sell-off…

Is the Fed behind the curve? It wouldn’t be the first time! Recently they started admitting that many of the inflationary inputs are not transitory. We show you some reasons why. If inflation is here for…

The press talks about inflation, we’ve included some data to ponder and share. Will the negative bond yields in Europe and elsewhere quickly turn into a relic? An update on the U.S. bond yield curve after…

Supply chain bottlenecks are showing some signs of easing except the most important one. Some updates on what is happening in China—will it spill over to the U.S.? What are the other effects of Covid…

Happy New Year! It looks like the bond markets finally woke up to reality last week. How far and how fast will yields rise? The Fed regional manufacturing surveys were mixed last month but solidly in growth…

While Covid caused an economic plummet and a subsequent surge, U.S. Services and manufacturing have largely returned to pre-covid levels. How does tech get affected by inflation? Speaking of inflation, what…

The latest on the Fed and inflation…what is driving their decisions? A great historical look on why equities, despite their risks, belong in a portfolio. Just why is/was Tesla valued at more than every other…

Is there a growing storm in China’s Real Estate market? Is it their 2007-08? With the Fed scheduled to meet, we offer some updates on inflation. How does the current inflationary environment compare to the…

As markets shrug off the Fed’s hawkish tone and the new Omicron variant, consistent themes continue to emerge: Inflation is accelerating across the globe, not waning. The data speaks for itself. Markets…