Market Insights

Silicon Valley Bank’s announcement that it was raising capital on Wednesday caused a crisis of confidence leading to a traditional bank run. Consumers and companies are adding debt. New orders are…

Economic data is showing no signs of weakness so far in 2023. If the economy remains strong, or even accelerates, then the Federal Reserve may have a harder time bringing inflation back to target…

Consumers are becoming more upbeat, at odds with disappointing retail sales in December. More companies are mentioning job cuts on earnings calls. Slack in the labor market will put downward pressure…

What a difference a year makes. In hindsight the markets entered 2022 on an unstable precipice. Conversely, 2023 is beginning to look like a valley, with much of the prior excesses already stamped out in a…

Consumers are becoming more upbeat, at odds with disappointing retail sales in December. More companies are mentioning job cuts on earnings calls. Slack in the labor market will put downward pressure…

Whether it be the explosion of cryptocurrencies, a renewed fervor for Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) , Electric Vehicle companies (many of which sought SPAC IPOs), or the dawn of the…

Real disposable incomes are on the rise again to start the new year as inflation continues to moderate. Unseasonably warm weather across the United States has caused front month natural gas prices…

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised markets by releasing economic and rate hike forecasts that are out of line with current consensus. The committee seems convinced that unemployment…

The Federal reserve wants to loosen the labor market, but the labor market isn’t tight because interest rates are too low. Despite higher interest rates and a cooling economy there’s been little stress…

Covid restrictions remain widespread in China, now impacting nearly 60% of economic output. Increasing covid restrictions have coincided with falling oil prices. Earnings estimates for large U.S. stocks…

The economy is still growing, but it seems clear that it’s no longer overheating. Consumers are continuing to spend into the holiday season. Views on the labor market are souring. Retail pricing power…

The economy can handle higher rates, but not a Federal Reserve asleep at the wheel. Powell denied any imminent pivot and spooked the markets with hawkish rhetoric surrounding further rate hikes…

U.S. GDP is growing again, but the story is a little more complicated below the surface. Preliminary data is showing a decline in U.S. rents during October. The Federal Reserve has now overseen the…

Consumer savings, which increased substantially during the pandemic, has remained near record levels. Social security payments are set to rise 8.7% providing much-needed relief to seniors. Key drivers…

What started as a summer of optimism in markets ended with a fall of fear. Tough talk from the Federal Reserve and August’s inflation print brought equity and fixed income markets broadly towards new lows…

The Federal Reserve is getting its wish, manufacturing growth has decelerated markedly and is now barely positive. On the positive side, the slowdown has allowed supply chains to catch up which bodes…

The Federal Reserve is threatening to push the economy into a recession to stamp out inflation if necessary, and the market is taking them seriously. Market prices on commodities and other industrial…

Jerome Powell’s tone during Wednesday’s press conference has market participants considered the Fed is determined to break the economy in order to get inflation under control. However, many forward leading inflation indicators…

Whether it be the explosion of cryptocurrencies, a renewed fervor for Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) , Electric Vehicle companies (many of which sought SPAC IPOs), or the dawn of the…

Last Tuesday’s CPI reading of +.1% month over month sent shockwaves through the market as forecasters hoped for a -.1% decrease month over month buoyed by big declines in oil prices.

Most data is pointing towards improving supply constraints in both physical goods and the labor market, likely implying declining inflation in the near-term. Russia has shut down the NordStream pipeline further exacerbating Europe’s energy…

At Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve officials dissuaded the market of any notion that a pivot is around the corner. These communications, coupled with more positive economic data, sent interest rates up…

After recent economic data exceeded expectations, futures markets are no longer pricing in cuts to the Federal Funds rate in the first half of 2023. The markets are giving the Federal Reserve room act…

With the release of last Friday’s jobs report the U.S. economy has now recovered all of the jobs lost during the pandemic, a momentous achievement. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue tightening…

The slowdown in economic data continues. Aggregate unemployment has remained largely unscathed, but employees are beginning to worry about labor markets. S&P 500 forward earnings estimates are falling despite…

A likely recession is now consensus among fund managers. Few managers are taking on risk in this environment, and many are hedged for further downside. Housing inventory is on the rise, but prices have yet to…

The U.S. Dollar is surging to new 20-year highs. Market measures of long-term inflation expectations continue to fall, driven in part by falling energy and agriculture prices. Gas prices are driven by the…

This has been one of the most difficult investment environments with simultaneous declines in bond and stocks, and a number of external shocks. However, the odds are in the favor of investors. Click below to…

The first half of 2022 has been one of the most difficult investment environments in the past 40 years due to the simultaneous decline of bonds with stocks, and an unprecedented mix of external shocks…