Market Insights

After Wednesday’s Fed meeting, Fed Chairman Powell says the U.S. economy is still a good deal away from making “substantial further progress”. Investors are waiting for a characterization of the…

Although this past year has been about getting back to normal, history shows that this uninterrupted bull market still stands out as tech mega-caps come storming back. New home sales missed…

Economic “normalization” continued as the effects of the reopenings were seen in Q2. The U.S. is growing faster than most other developed nations, at higher than expected rates prior to Covid, but is this just a reopening upswing that will fizzle out?

In the first quarter we reflected on the amazing dichotomy between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021, and yet, despite the rapid changes we have seen in the past 18 months, we might dare refer to Q2 2021 as…

The Delta variant could put a wrench in “normalization” as many businesses plan to return to their office this fall with ~100 million eligible people still not vaccinated. But the flash Markit PMI…

Home sales hit a multi-year high in June but are still below expectations as inventories remain extremely low for this time of year. Will the Case-Shiller Home Price Index exceed 25% and will…

The National Bureau of Economic Research’s decision to set the COVID recession at two months was surprising since more than a year and half later, “normalization” is ongoing. And although longer…

More inflation data continues to roll in both here and abroad, and there is no sign yet of it backing off despite Fed Chairman Powell’s claims. Looking at the debt situation (which includes CPI…

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke before a House panel yesterday where he noted the increase in inflation but remains confident that it will back off as the economy returns to normal. It seems his…

The CPI is now well above the pre-Covid trend, leading the Boomer generation to draw parallels to the 1970’s. Yet, barring extreme competition or a collapse, the Fed continues its transitory thinking…

The median rent has climbed in the first half of 2021, putting a strain on lower-income households as the federal eviction moratorium is set to expire. Now with concerns about the nation’s rental…

Consumer credit set a record in May for the largest one-month increase, though the major decline in debt last year— spurred largely by stimulus payments—means it remains well-below its pre-Covid…

The U.S. economy continues its pursuit of “normal” as both the manufacturing and services PMIs ease off their post-pandemic surges into more typical growth territory. Could this signal an easing in…

10 more states put an end to the $300 pandemic-era unemployment enhancement at the end of June, and it’s having an effect on both job search activity and continuous claim volume. As overall…

Aided by stimulus payments, QE, and last year’s booming stock market, household wealth has ballooned in the U.S., accelerating an already notable trend and pocketing households an additional $13.5…

Inflation continues to climb in the U.S. as the Market Manufacturing PMI hits a new record on the back of revitalized demand, persistent and extreme supply chain bottlenecks, and soaring producer…

Producer price increases have paused to catch their breath in Richmond, and though existing home sales are slowing, housing price gains are continuing to soar—all while remaining under the radar…

Our new video series, “Minutes in a Minute” launched this month to provide an insider’s look at our weekly Investment Committee meetings. What are the main talking points amongst our PMs? What themes…

The newly hawkish tone from the Fed sent yield curves flatting last week as they continue working to keep rates low… and the effect wasn’t limited to the U.S. Will additional insight be offered when…

The Fed’s dot-plot update and more-hawkish-than-expected turn took the markets off guard this week as investors prepare for two rate hikes in 2023. Sparked by significant increases to GDP and…

Retail sales may have fallen short of estimates and slipped 1.3% in May, but they remain a solid 18% above their pre-Covid trend and continue to reflect strength from the U.S. consumer. What’s more…

Consumer prices are climbing in the U.S. as core CPI shoots to its highest level in nearly three decades. Higher costs are already taking a toll on consumers’ plans to spend on higher cost items…

CPI is in, and climbing fast. Driven largely by airfare, household furnishings, and used cars, prices are up 5% annually—the fastest annual rate since 2008. But as the Fed would likely remind us…

The labor market is setting new—and concerning—records in the U.S. as Covid restrictions ease, life gets a little more normal, and “return-to-office” efforts begin in earnest; job openings have hit…

Friday’s jobs report came in below economists’ forecasts, though not due to lack of demand. The supply shortage is pushing wages higher, particularly in the recently revitalized leisure and…

More good news from ISM this week: services PMI saw gains in every sector and climbed to its highest level on record in May—though again, not without a corresponding hike in prices. This morning’s jobs…

The Chicago PMI raced past projections and surged to a fresh record in May and the ISM Manufacturing PMI continues to show rapid expansion in factory activity—though neither is without accompanying…

Pricing pressures continue to plague manufacturers as supply chain issues persist and activity eases off highs, though the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index remains firmly in growth territory…

Business activity accelerated yet again this month with Markit Manufacturing PMI coming in above expectations, and the phenomenon isn’t limited to just the U.S… or the manufacturing sector. Services…