Donald Trump is heading back to the White House in 2025. While the outcome was more widely anticipated than in 2016, it still sent waves through financial markets. Stocks hit new all-time highs as interest rates and the dollar rose. The jump in…
Recent economic data has been stronger than expected, sending intermediate and long-term interest rates higher. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the third quarter remained strong, driven by consumer spending. Business spending remains…
U.S. markets are pricing in an uptick in inflation, which has many knock-on effects throughout the economy. Mortgage rates are back above 7%, likely spoiling any nascent momentum in the housing market. Small-cap stocks have taken a hit…
Q3 2024 saw a broad rally driven by small-cap, value stocks, and international markets as central banks cut rates. Looking ahead, caution is shifting focus to selective opportunities in sectors like financials, healthcare, and industrials.
The U.S. consumer is in a league of its own. The recent retail sales report came in higher than expected and alternative data suggests that the strong growth may continue. Household liabilities are on the rise, is this a sign of near-term…
The S&P 500 is on pace for a historically strong return this year but will need to navigate one more earnings season unscathed. U.S. stock-bond correlations are back in negative territory. Chinese stock markets have entered the “show me” phase…
Why are mortgage rates still stubbornly high despite the Fed easing rates? Understand the potential trajectory of future mortgage rates and explore key factors like housing demand, mortgage rate spreads, and market trends impacting rate movements.
The Chinese government announced a slew of stimulus measures to prop up the economy over the past week. These announcements sent investors—who had largely abandoned China—rushing back to buy stocks. Looser financial conditions in the U.S. may…
Like most investors, we’re eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) decision on interest rates. Frankly, it can’t come soon enough — we’re all tired of the endless debate over 25 vs. 50 basis points. I know it’s not Friday but I wanted…
The longest continuous yield curve inversion has finally come to an end. Or has it? The answer depends on how you measure it. That’s just one of my gripes with the yield curve inversion as an economic indicator…
How can you position your portfolios in preparation for the possible outcomes of the upcoming Fed Decision? There seems to be consensus that the Federal Open Market Committee (the Fed) will pursue one of three leading options…
The Federal Reserve’s highly restrictive interest rate policy is taking its toll, as interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy are rolling over. The pace of job creation continues to slow but…
September 5, 2024 |
How short-term bubbles can lead to revolutionary innovation and in turn, long-term economic growth. We anticipate the AI investment boom to follow the same patterns we’ve seen throughout history. Last Thursday, Nvidia…
The Federal Reserve’s focus is shifting from inflation to the labor market as continued economic strength comes into question. Recent revisions have shown that job growth over the past year was not as…
Volmageddon isn’t what it used to be. Perhaps increased interest in the index has made the VIX an example of Goodhart’s Law—when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Equities…
On Sunday night the Bank of Japan (BOJ) unexpectedly raised interest rates, adding fuel to the fire in already skittish equity markets. Investors were on edge after the prior week’s payroll report…
After a decade of tech dominance, we’re seeing a major rotation in the market. Large-cap growth stocks, led by giants like Microsoft, have recently been overshadowed as money flows into small-cap value stocks. Over just two weeks following the…
After a remarkable stretch of outperformance, the magnificent seven are finally taking a break. Recent selling pressure has been concentrated in the largest stocks, dragging the broad indices lower…
As the public becomes more informed about artificial intelligence and machine learning, here are our five core principles of responsible use of Artificial Intelligence as it specifically relates to making investment decisions.
Over the last decade, the largest tech companies have consistently and significantly outperformed the rest of the market. Last week, seemingly catalyzed by the July 8th CPI report, we saw a complete unwind of the trade…
By many measures market indices sit at extremes. Concentration and the outperformance of growth stocks are both at historic highs—reminiscent of the tech bubble. While the valuations of the largest companies have expand…
A surprise decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) set off a massive rotation in the equity markets. Only time will tell whether this is a change in trend or a repositioning. The economy clearly isn’t…
Performance of the technology sector vs the broad market is reaching extremes, as investors continue to pile into the momentum trade. Recent price action has been bizarre, with the S&P 500 price…
The Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) left the Federal Funds Rate unchanged in June. The committee also updated their economic projections, which appear stale after a spate of weaker than expected…
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls smashed expectations again but there are signs below the surface that the labor market is coming back into balance. A balanced labor market with less employee turnover may allow…
Have Inflation concerns returned? We’ve long been prepared to move on from the over analysis of monthly inflation data, confident the majority of inflation would prove transitory, leaving investors to focus on economic growth…
Recent economic data has surprised to the downside, strengthening the case for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. So far, markets are looking through the near-term weakness as companies’ profit…
Earnings season is well underway, and thus far, the data has exceeded expectations. This may be partially explained by an unexpected surge in consumer spending in March, following a weak start to the…
Slowing wage growth and sticky inflation could become a problem for U.S. consumers. Those at the lower end of the income spectrum are already struggling. As interest rates creep back towards the highs…
