Positive Earnings Revisions at a 20-year High, 2009 Deja Vu, and a Look at Global Trade
July 1, 2020 | FIRESIDE CHARTS
The manufacturing recovery continued in June with a solid rebound in Dallas, but momentum may be difficult to sustain through Texas’s surge in COVID-19 cases and reopening. And after hitting its lowest levels in nearly 40 years, the MNI Chicago Business Barometer—considered a leading indicator for the broader economy—edged up slightly in June, but still fell short of expectations. Still, as we head into earnings season, many companies have been demonstrating optimism by revising their forecasts to the upside… by the largest margin in two decades. But if equities continue to follow the recovery pattern from 2009, is there any hope of it being a smooth ride? Meanwhile, plummeting global trade has dealt a blow to Japan, which has otherwise largely escaped the worst of the pandemic’s effects. China’s manufacturing sector is recovering well as PMI figures stabilize in growth territory and top expectations for June. Could this offer a glimpse into the future for other nations grappling with the COVID-19 crisis?
1. Another solid rebound, but with the recent Covid outbreak in Texas and the South this may soften next month…
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 6/30/20
2. Unlike the other Fed surveys, Chicago showed a much more modest recovery…
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 7/1/20
3. After months of uncertainty and downward revisions, U.S. companies are now starting to guide their earnings higher:
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 6/30/20
4. U.S. stocks seem to be mirroring 2009’s recovery. If it continues, the summer months could be “bumpy”…
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 7/1/20
5. A ten-year survey of state pension funds found that private equity performed the same as public equity. Did the fees eat the alpha?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 6/30/20
6. Gold, with the tailwinds of low interest rates, Covid uncertainty and higher future inflation expectations, continues to move higher…
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 7/1/20
7. Will this be exacerbated by the low bond yields across the globe?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 6/30/20
8. While all Americans want to reopen, Covid has other plans…
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 7/1/20
9. How low will trade go?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 7/1/20
10. Japan, the third largest economy, is having a tough go as exports are limited…
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 7/1/20
11. While China, the second largest economy, is “back to normal” and remained in growth mode in June.
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 7/1/20
12. What is sad is that much of this data consumers have agreed to give away for free as the Siris, tech and social media already grab it…
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 6/30/20
13. Ever wonder why cigarettes are so bad for you?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 6/30/20
Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are they a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be helf in client accounts.